Zambia's centre for policy dialogue predicts that the main opposition leader would carry the day should the general polls be held today

CENTRE FOR POLICY DIALOGUE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR DR NEO SIMUTANYI PREDICTS THAT IF THE GENERAL ELECTIONS WERE TO BE HELD TODAY, PATRIOTIC FRONT PRESIDENT MICHAEL SATA WOULD CARRY THE DAY WITH 31 PERCENTAGE POINTS OF THE TOTAL VOTES.

ACCORDING TO THE OPINION POLL CONDUCTED BY CENTRE FOR POLICY DIALOGUE FROM 14^TH TO 24^TH APRIL, 2011, MICHAEL SATA WOULD CARRY THE DAY WITH 31%, WHILE HIS CLOSEST RIVAL PRESIDENT RUPIAH BANDA WOULD AMASS VOTES TOTALING 28% AND HAKAINDE HICHILEMA WOULD HAVE ABOUT 12% OF THE TOTAL VOTES.

BUT THE CENTRE FOR POLICY DIALOGUE HAS WARNED THAT AS THE COUNTRY GOES TO THE POLLS THERE ARE MORE ZAMBIANS WHO ARE STILL UNDECIDED LEAVING THE ELECTORAL RACE WIDE OPEN.

BRIEFING THE MEDIA IN LUSAKA TODAY, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR NEO SIMUTANYI EXPLAINED THAT A CLOSER EXAMINATION OF ELECTORAL PREFERENCES SUGGESTS THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE SHIFT FROM THE 2006 AND 2008 SCENARIOS, WITH PF AND MICHAEL SATA WHO COMMANDS SUPPORT IN THE TRADITIONAL AREAS OF LUSAKA, COPPERBELT,LUAPULA AND NORTHERN PROVINCES.

DR SIMUTANYI ADDS THAT MMD AND PRESIDENT BANDA’S SUPPORT REMAINS CONCENTRATED IN EASTERN, CENTRAL, NORTH-WESTERN AND WESTERN PROVINCES WHILE THAT OF HAKAINDE HICHILEMA AND UPND CONTINUES TO BE IN SOUTHERN PROVINCE.

HE SAYS  THE SUPPORT TREND FOR ALL MAJOR PARTIES HAS DECLINED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM 2008 ELECTIONS IN THE AREAS THEY CLAIM TO HAVE SUPPORT.

DR SIMUTANYI HOWEVER WARNS THAT IT IS TOO EARLY FOR ANY PARTY TO CLAIM VICTORY IN LIGHT OF THE THESE RESULTS.

THE OPINION POLL FURTHER SUGGESTS THAT 90% OF ZAMBIANS INDICATED THAT THEY WERE LIKELY TO VOTE IF ELECTIONS WERE CALLED IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.

AND DR SIMUTANYI  HAS ADVISED POLITICAL PLAYERS TO FOCUS THEIR CAMPAIGNS ON ISSUES RAISED BY THE ZAMBIANS DURING THE POLLS LIKE POVERTY, UNEMPLOYMENT, POOR LIVINGS STANDARDS AND QUALITY HEALTH CARE AND EDUCATION.

CENTRE FOR POLICY DIALOGUE CONDUCTED A PUBLIC OPINION POLL OF A NATIONAL SAMPLE REPRESENTATION OF 1,200 REGISTERED ZAMBIAN VOTERS WHICH COVERED ALL THE NINE PROVINCE OF THE COUNTRY IN 19 DISTRICTS.

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